China Drying Network News reported that the coal price in the market has continued to decline since November last year. Although March and April have seen a slow rising trend, the cumulative price has only risen by 15 yuan/ton, but it entered the fast down channel after entering May. . The reporter learned from the Qinhuangdao Coal Network that as of August 1, the Bohai Bo thermal coal price index closed at 626 yuan/ton, which was a drop of 5 yuan/ton from the previous period, again setting a new record since the index was issued. This is the index fell for the 13th consecutive week and has fallen by 161 yuan/ton, with an overall drop of 20.5%.

Behind the continuous decline in coal prices is the destocking problem. According to the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association, the total coal consumption in the first half of the year was about 1.97 billion tons, an increase of 2.8% from the same period of last year and a decrease of 6.6 percentage points from the increase in the same period of last year. Among them, the power industry as a large coal consumer consumed 990 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 2.7 million tons. %, the increase slowed down by 9.4 percentage points.

The sharp fall in demand growth has made coal sales sluggish, and the destocking process has been slow. The National Development and Reform Commission recently announced the production and sales profile of coal in the first half of 2012 in eight provinces and autonomous regions including Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Henan, Guizhou, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Shaanxi, and Yunnan. The report shows that in the first half of this year, the raw coal output of the eight provinces and autonomous regions was 1.033 billion tons; as of the end of June 2012, the coal stocks of the eight provinces and autonomous regions reached 43.040 million tons, an increase of 194.822 million tons, an increase of 82.83% over the same period of last year.

This problem did not improve significantly in the second half of the year. "Destocking has been going on for more than two months, but the inventory is still very high, and the number of available days is still more than 20 days. Now that the peak of electricity consumption is reached in the summer, the demand for electricity is still not enough, and the daily coal consumption has not increased substantially." A coal power purchaser of a power group told the "Economic Information Daily" reporter.

Qinhuangdao Coal Network data show that in the first half of July, the average daily coal consumption of major national power plants was 3.566 million tons, although compared with June, an increase of 250,000 tons, an increase of 7.5%, but still reduced by 36.4 compared with the same period last year Ten thousand tons, a drop of 9.3%. The electricity company's coal inventory days are also about 25 days, far more than a reasonable number of days from 7 to 15 days.

“The overall procurement enthusiasm of coal-consuming companies is still poor, coupled with frequent wind and fog events that have caused Qinhuangdao port closures several times, which has affected the normal port coal shipments to a certain extent. Daily average coal shipments at Qinhuangdao port in July were only marginal. Increase.” Li Ting analyst of Qinhuangdao Coal Network said. It is understood that as of August 1st, Qinhuangdao Port and SDIC Caofeidian Port coal inventories were 8.129 million tons and 2.63 million tons respectively, which still belongs to a relatively high inventory level.

Affected by sluggish sales and continuous drop in prices, the sharp decline in performance or loss has become the main theme of the current status of the coal industry. “Coal enterprises have great sales pressure, and coal sales in major coal-producing provinces and key coal companies have fallen. In the first five months, 90 large-scale coal companies have suffered losses. At the end of June, account receivables of 90 large-scale coal enterprises increased by 52.8% year-on-year. "Liang Dunshi, deputy secretary-general of the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association, said.

Wind statistics show that as of August 1st, 8 out of 8 listed companies in the coal industry that have issued performance forecast are expected to lose money in the first half of the year, and 2 companies are expected to have net profit decline year-on-year, only Yongtai Energy is due to the company's coal output With substantial growth, net profit is expected to increase year-on-year.

Among them, the open-pit coal industry expects the company's net profit will drop 1% to 20% year-on-year, mainly due to the decline in coal sales and the impact of factors such as diesel, tires and other raw material prices; coal gasification projected net profit loss will reach 45 million yuan to 55 million yuan; Meijin Energy expects that the company's net profit in the first half of the year will be a loss of 11 million yuan to 15 million yuan, while in the same period of last year, the company's net profit was 9.3111 million yuan.

It is noteworthy that the rise in financial costs has also caused a considerable burden on coal companies. Taking Yunmei Energy as an example, it is expected that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in the first half of the year will be a loss of about 32 million yuan, of which the financial cost ratio will be higher due to the increase in the discounted coupon interest and the accrued interest on construction in progress to the current profit or loss. It increased by about 28 million yuan in the same period of the year.

The future trend of coal prices will determine whether the performance of listed companies in the industry can reverse the decline. Liang Dunshi predicts that coal imports will continue to increase in the second half of the year, coal supply will continue to maintain a slight increase, coal demand may continue to fall, and the coal market will continue to show a situation of oversupply.

“After a sharp pullback in the previous period, the potential decline in the coal price of the Bohai Rim has basically been released, and the stabilization conditions for the temporary stoppage of the coal price have been gradually established. However, taking into account that the overall coal demand is still relatively weak, the supply and demand of coal in the international market is relatively loose, and the downstream power plants and transit port coal inventory Still at a high level, there is little likelihood that coal prices will rebound significantly.” Li Ting believes.

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