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According to the US Chemical Commission's forecast, the growth rate of the US chemical industry in 2008 was 2.1%, slightly higher than that in 2007. This will mainly depend on the relatively strong growth of the global economy. A weaker dollar will lower US exports. It is expected that chemical production in the United States will increase by 2.1% in 2008 and chemical sales will increase by 2.3% to US$654 billion. The economic growth in Latin America is strong and the development prospects of the industry are promising.
The European Chemical Industry Council estimates that the growth rate of European chemical industry in 2008 was 1.9%, lower than 2.6% in 2007. It is predicted that the output of chemical products will increase by approximately 1.9% in 2008, which is lower than the growth rate of 2.6% in 2007. In 2007, all kinds of chemicals grew, and the development of consumer chemicals was particularly strong. Among other major categories, petrochemicals will continue to grow in 2008 after a modest increase in 2007. Polymers will rebound in 2008 after a slow growth in 2007. Although energy prices are high, basic inorganic chemicals will still grow moderately.
According to the analysis, the operating profit of Canadian chemicals increased by 18% in 2007. The growth was mainly driven by the production of ethylene and its derivatives derived from natural gas in the west. This year, due to certain uncertainties in the chemical industry, it is expected that the performance will decline slightly. .
Analysts pointed out that although the economic development in other parts of the world has slowed down, the prospects for emerging economies in Asia in 2008 remain bright. China's economic growth is expected to reach 10.5%, slightly lower than the growth rate of 11.4% in 2007, but it is still growing strongly. Other developing economies such as India are expected to grow by 8.5% in 2008, the same as in 2007. Driven by the rapid economic growth, the efficiency of chemical manufacturers will continue to grow.
Although the focus of development is on China and India, Japan is still the largest economy in Asia and the second largest economy in the world. Japan's large chemical producers will further optimize production for a period of time: Asahi Kasei Corp., a multi-chemical producer, will increase its net profit for the fiscal year ending March 31 by approximately 11% over the previous fiscal year; Mitsui Chemicals' fiscal year The net profit will drop by 18%, and it is expected that the petrochemical profits will be basically the same as last year; Mitsubishi Chemical Corporation is an important petrochemical producer in Japan and it is expected that the profit will increase by 85% this fiscal year. Compared with India, China, and Japan, Singapore’s economic aggregate is much smaller, but Singapore’s chemical industry is also driven by development.
In addition, industry analysts reminded that the commissioning of the Middle East, especially the Iranian project this year, may result in excess production capacity, which will adversely affect the development of the industry. However, Accenture's research report on global chemicals, which is being consulted, shows that the industry's operating rate will remain high.
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Global Chemical Development Express Speed ​​Is Unabated
Although the US economic recession and the oil price escalating to US$100/barrel in 2008 will have a major impact on the development of the world's chemical industry, according to the US Chemicals Commission, the world's chemical industry grew by 4.3% in 2008, which is higher than 2007. 4.1%. Among them, the growth rate of the US chemical industry is slightly higher than that of last year, the pace of development in Europe will slow down, and most areas in Asia and Latin America will continue to develop rapidly.