As a new international strategic framework for China, the “Belt and Road” has brought multiple opportunities for development in the Chinese economy. Its strategic vision can be divided into two major levels: the recent focus on “infrastructure, interoperability, financial intercommunication, industrial docking, and resource introduction”. In the long run, it is committed to “communication and cultural intercommunication, regional economic integration and common prosperity”. Based on the above analysis framework, the “One Belt, One Road” strategy will bring five major thematic opportunities for domestic industry development:
First, the theme of "access navigation": including transportation (port, road, railway, logistics), railway construction and related equipment, aviation services, equipment, machine production. In the construction of “One Belt and One Road”, transportation is a priority development area to accelerate the improvement of the interconnection level of transportation infrastructure between China and neighboring countries, and to form regional transportation integration.
The transportation industry (port, road, railway, logistics) will take the lead in directly benefiting from the completion of the Asian-European transportation channel, creating conditions for the development of regional economic development, and accelerating the promotion of various modes of transportation such as roads, railways, civil aviation and shipping. Interoperability will increase throughput significantly. The new Eurasia Continental Bridge, connected from Lianyungang to Rotterdam, will strengthen its backbone in international land transport. China will also strive to build a comprehensive air, land and air transportation mode with China's third largest trading partner, the ASEAN region: the sea - connecting China and Southeast Asian countries' coastal ports; and inland rivers - China's investment in the Lancang-Mekong River. Create a golden waterway; highways - South (Ning) Man (Valley), Kun (Ming) Man (Valley) roads have been opened, Southeast Asia is forming two horizontal and two vertical roads; Railway - China plans to start from Kunming and Nanning Construction of the Pan-Southeast Asian Railways to connect Southeast Asian land countries.
The “going out” of transportation infrastructure construction and operation will also drive the growth of railway construction and related equipment, aviation services, equipment and machine production.
China's ports have rich experience in infrastructure construction and operation, and the “going out” of railway construction provides a good example for other infrastructure companies to go global. At the same time, the “21st Century Maritime Silk Road” has strong demand for the construction of large ports in Southeast Asia and South Asian countries. High-quality enterprises in these fields have good prospects for “going out” in construction and operation.
Especially in the area of ​​railway construction, the "Eurasian Railway Network Plan" that breaks through the national boundaries will also stimulate the development of railway construction. According to incomplete statistics, the current intentional railway project has reached 0.5 million kilometers, and there is still a huge space compared with the planned target of 81,000 kilometers of the Eurasian railway network.
Second, the "infrastructure industry chain" theme: including the construction industry (construction and infrastructure engineering), equipment manufacturing (equipment and supporting equipment manufacturing), infrastructure materials (steel, building materials, non-ferrous metals, etc.).
From the demand side, the countries along the “Belt and Road” countries, whether from domestic demand or future regional economic cooperation, are extremely demanding for infrastructure construction. Due to financial constraints, countries along the “Belt and Road” have insufficient infrastructure investment expenditures, and generally show the status quo of backward infrastructure – per capita GDP, per capita highway mileage, per capita railway mileage and other indicators are far lower than China, countries along Asia and Africa. Compared with China, there are 10% and 20% urbanization improvement space respectively, and China's accumulated experience and product and service capacity in the process of urbanization can be exported. From the domestic point of view, the density of railways, highways and expressways in the northwestern provinces and regions is ranked behind in the country. Xinjiang, Qinghai and Gansu are among the bottom five, and Ningxia and Shaanxi are at the middle and lower levels, in order to realize the “Belt and Road”. Infrastructure construction between countries, there is room for investment in infrastructure projects such as urban construction and transportation networks in northwestern China.
From the perspective of the supply side, with the growth rate of fixed asset investment, the problem of overcapacity in China's construction industry and manufacturing industry is becoming more and more serious. The “infrastructure output” can greatly alleviate the pressure on product demand in China's construction industry and manufacturing industry. Under the background of the “Belt and Road” strategy, China’s participation in the establishment of the “BRICS Development Bank” and the “Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank” largely demonstrates the strategic concept of China’s expansion of its infrastructure investment business.
According to the overall infrastructure investment of about 5% of GDP, the demand for infrastructure along the “Belt and Road” may reach US$1.05 trillion per year, while China’s foreign contracted completions amounted to only US$0.14 trillion in 2013, accounting for only 13%. . Subjective will and objective conditions form a joint force. In the future, the pace of “going out” of China’s construction and manufacturing enterprises will be greatly accelerated, and the prospects for broad industrial expansion in overseas markets will gradually open.
Under the support of the “One Belt, One Road” strategic policy, the “going out” of foreign engineering contracting construction enterprises can form a large export pull, effectively hedge the decline of domestic demand, and thus drive the entire “infrastructure industry chain”.
At present, the global economic recovery is slow, the domestic economy is also facing a difficult transition, the global trade environment is not good, and the pursuit of export growth is likely to cause many frictions and contradictions, while foreign investment is more acceptable, and it is better to export external demand with foreign investment than exports. The use of construction enterprise output methods can drive the output of domestic design, consulting, manufacturing, materials, labor, finance, insurance, services and other industries, and hedge domestic demand decline. Different from the low cost and low added value of foreign trade exports, the “going out” mode of construction enterprises effectively drives China's high value-added products, such as mechanical and electrical products, in line with the national industrial upgrading target.
Third, the theme of "energy construction": including pipeline construction related industries for China's oil and gas imports, power station construction, power equipment, etc.
Expanding the stable import channel of oil and gas resources is an important strategic goal of the “Belt and Road” initiative. In recent years, China's demand for oil and gas resources is increasing rapidly. However, China's oil and gas resources are mainly imported through the sea and land of the Straits of Malacca. The access to it is relatively simple, and energy security is vulnerable to threats. It is urgent to expand new oil and gas resources.
Under the theme of “energy construction”, the construction of China's onshore energy channel strategy will directly benefit the pipeline construction related industries of China's oil and gas imports. The Central Asian countries bordering Xinjiang are extremely rich in oil and gas resources, and are the second most abundant oil and gas resources after the Middle East. At present, China's imports of oil from Central Asia and Russia are still low, and the import of natural gas from Central Asia has been rising in recent years. With the popularity of natural gas and the rapid growth of domestic demand, imports from Central Asia through Xinjiang will continue to increase.
In the future, in order to meet the transportation demand for new imports, Xinjiang will build a number of energy pipelines to build a large energy channel on China's land. Supporting oil pipelines, natural gas pipelines, power grids, and road transportation, these areas are bound to usher in further advantages.
From the perspective of demand, the power consumption level of developing countries along the “Belt and Road” is extremely low, and there is huge room for development. According to the statistics of electricity consumption in 2013, the per capita annual power consumption of non-OECD countries along the “Belt and Road” is only about 1655.52KWH, while the per capita annual power consumption of OECD countries is about 7757.49KWH. The former is only the latter. 21.84%. Therefore, from the point of view of power consumption, the future power consumption level of non-OECD countries along the “Belt and Road” will have a huge room for growth, and with the increase in power consumption, it will inevitably lead to the investment of electricity in these countries. Bringing huge electrical equipment needs.
Due to the relatively weak domestic manufacturing industry in these countries, the major national electrical equipment involved in the “Belt and Road” is heavily dependent on imports. The total import ratio of the above countries is about 56.73%. According to this ratio and combined with the future investment trend of the “One Belt and One Road” region, it can be concluded that during the period from 2014 to 2020, there are about OECD countries in the area along the “Belt and Road”. With the import demand for electrical equipment of US$139.06 billion or more, it is possible for China's power companies to share this huge overseas market in the future.
From the perspective of supply, at this stage, the production capacity of China's electrical equipment is obviously overcapacity. In 2013, China's power generation equipment output was about 120 million kilowatts, accounting for about 60% of the global total. However, China's annual installed capacity is only 50 million to 60 million kilowatts, and there is a serious excess capacity. Therefore, China's electrical equipment enterprises have "going out to sea". The urgent need to digest these capacities.
The technical level of China's electrical equipment has reached the world's advanced level in many fields, and has the competitive advantage in the international market. At present, China's hydropower projects and equipment are highly competitive internationally, and about 80% of the world's hydropower projects are built by Chinese companies. In the photovoltaic market, the conversion rate of China's solar cell products is at an advanced level in the world, and export components account for about 60% of the global market share.
Through the gradual development of the “One Belt, One Road” strategy, the pace of China’s electrical equipment going global will be further accelerated. China’s electrical equipment should have a market share of about 40% in non-OECD countries along the “Belt and Road” region. . According to this ratio, the total export value of China's electrical equipment enterprises in the countries along the “Belt and Road” will reach 98.435 billion US dollars per year from 2014 to 2020, which will greatly benefit China's electrical equipment enterprises.
Fourth, the theme of "trade culture": trade and cultural tourism industry.
In the long run, the road connectivity and trade connectivity are also accompanied by cultural communication. The “Silk Road” has been a manifestation of cultural exchanges since ancient times. Its exchanges and cooperation cover cultural activities such as culture, tourism and education. By cultivating international boutique tourism routes and tourism products featuring the Silk Road, we can actively promote the trade in specialty services and develop modern service trade. The flow of personnel will also strengthen the development of special tourism products, cultural products, folk customs, tourist routes and intangible cultural heritage projects in countries and regions along the route. Tourism enterprises can carry out tourism management collaboration, tourism business cooperation, tourism charter flights, and tourism investment. Trade, tourism service procurement.
From the perspective of policy support, the cultural tourism industry will also welcome new growth space along with the promotion of the “One Belt, One Road” overall strategy.
V. The theme of “information industry”: Grasping the digital trend of national economies and accelerating the development of China's information products and services.
"Interconnection" is to strengthen the construction of all-round infrastructure, not only by the construction of transportation infrastructure such as roads, railways, aviation, ports, but also the communication infrastructure such as the Internet, communication network and Internet of Things. The deep interoperability between the “Belt and Road” countries will put forward higher requirements for information infrastructure, which is a major positive for the Chinese communications industry, especially the communication infrastructure providers such as Huawei, ZTE and Xinwei that have successfully “goed out”. .
As the forerunner of the “going out” strategy, China's communications equipment industry has occupied two seats among the top five telecom system equipment manufacturers in the world. Huawei's sales revenue has surpassed Ericsson [microblogging] to leap to the first place. At present, Huawei's overseas revenue has exceeded 70%, ZTE's overseas revenue has reached 50%, and FiberHome Communications has 10% of its revenue from overseas. The global competitiveness of China Telecom [microblogging] system equipment manufacturers provides an important basis for the implementation of the communication infrastructure in the “One Belt, One Road” strategic plan.
Recalling the first round of “going out” of Chinese enterprises, companies such as Huawei, ZTE and Xinwei benefited from the preferential policies of the State Council to support the export of superior equipment, and successively obtained the tens of billions of dollars of buyer credit financing support from the China Development Bank, thus in Africa, Emerging countries such as Latin America and Eastern Europe have an advantage in market expansion; now Chinese companies are welcoming the second round of “going out” strategic opportunities. On the one hand, the digital trend of the global economy means that there is a continuous information infrastructure in the “Belt and Road” countries. On the other hand, financing institutions such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Silk Road Fund will actively finance overseas information infrastructure. ZTE, Huawei and other companies that have implemented the “going out” strategy and achieved a good overseas position, as well as other companies in the ICT sector that have begun to expand overseas, will usher in major industrial opportunities.
6. The theme of the construction of the free trade zone: In addition to the industry's development opportunities, the free trade zone strategy will also have a positive interaction with the “One Belt, One Road” strategy.
The “One Belt, One Road” plan will promote the construction of economic corridors in the form of promoting the construction of a free trade zone or port area. At present, China is advancing a series of free trade zone negotiations and gradually building a high-standard free trade zone network that radiates “One Belt, One Road”. The “Belt and Road” and the construction of the Free Trade Zone are “integrated and mutually supportive” and will form a new pattern of opening up to the outside world. The former focuses on infrastructure to promote the interconnection of economies along the line, while the latter aims to lower the trade threshold. The promotion of the level of trade facilitation and the acceleration of intra-regional economic integration are the main contents. The interaction between the “Belt and Road” strategy and the domestic free trade zone is as follows:
1. The Free Trade Zone is the carrier of the first-in-first-trial test under the new opening pattern of the “Belt and Road”. Promote the development of port economy and free trade park (port) areas along the line, and provide the first-mover pilot for the construction of the “Belt and Road”. The continued development of the “Belt and Road” requires a number of port economic zones along the way. China should make good use of the free trade park (Hong Kong) zone as a regional cooperation platform to accelerate the construction of free trade parks (ports) in the areas along the line, focus on eliminating institutional barriers and barriers in the existing open areas, expand market access, and promote key areas. Open to the outside world.
First of all, it is necessary to summarize the valuable experience of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, explore the pre-entry national treatment and negative list management mode for foreign investment, and promote opening up to a wider and higher level. At the same time, accelerate the construction of free trade parks (ports) in coastal areas along Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, Hainan, and Yunnan.
2. The Free Trade Zone constitutes the internal and external linkage of the “Belt and Road” framework. Looking at the planning schemes of the provinces participating in the “Belt and Road” strategy, it is not difficult to find that the construction of the free trade zones with different emphasis is standard. The “Belt and Road” initiative opens up the economy, and the construction of the free trade zone will become an important starting point for the “One Belt, One Road” internal and external linkage. After the completion of the “1+3” free trade zone in Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong and Fujian, the future will not be ruled out. More free trade zones have been established in the central and western regions.
The entry point of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone's strategy of docking the “Belt and Road” strategy is to build a new open economic system and establish a sound economic operation mechanism that adapts to the development of an open economy and is compatible with international economic rules. At the same time, promote financial innovation closely integrated with the construction of Shanghai International Financial Center, including expanding cross-border use of the renminbi, opening up the financial services industry, and building financial markets.
With the port as the hub, open up to Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, through the Indian Ocean, the South Pacific, and coherent Eurasia. Therefore, accelerating the establishment of the free trade zones of Guangdong, Tianjin and Fujian is a major measure to accelerate the realization of the “Belt and Road” strategy. The function of Guangdong Free Trade Zone is mainly to strengthen cooperation between Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao and promote the development of the Pearl River Delta region. Its starting point is relatively high, and there are more investment opportunities in high-end services. The function of Tianjin Free Trade Zone is mainly to face the Northeast Asian market, shipping. Financial leasing has a strong advantage; Fujian Free Trade Zone mainly develops Taiwan-Taiwan trade, and has advantages in conducting in-depth exchanges and cooperation with Taiwanese companies in China.
3. The interaction between the construction of the Free Trade Zone and the “One Belt, One Road” strategy constitutes the driving force for deepening reform.
With the continuous advancement of the “One Belt, One Road” strategy, China’s free trade zone strategy must not only build a number of free trade zones represented by the Shanghai Free Trade Zone in China, but also provide opportunities for China to further deepen reforms to try and sum up experience. It is necessary to establish a free trade zone in the fields of trade and investment with current and future important economic and trade partners, and provide a more important platform for economic and trade partners to enhance bilateral economic and trade activities and improve the efficiency of cross-border allocation of resources.
From the advantages of setting up a new free trade zone, it is not difficult to see that the strategy of reforming the administration of decentralization and decentralization is the starting point for a new round of high-level opening up and broader reforms, which will further enhance the development of China's open economy. Level. Through the construction of the domestic free trade zone and the international free trade zone, the “One Belt, One Road” strategy will gain more solid support.

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