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In January 2012, the sales volume in the domestic heavy truck market was approximately 34,000 units, a decrease of more than 60% compared with the same period in 2011. For industry insiders, the downturn in the heavy-duty truck market that began in 2012 was an unexpected thing. As the domestic heavy-duty truck industry trend is high and low in 2011, under the higher base, the first quarter of 2012 will be the lowest point of annual sales growth.
In the first three months, the sales of domestic heavy trucks will decline by more than 30%. In January, due to negative factors such as Spring Festival holidays, sales will have a clear downward trend. In 2011, because the Spring Festival was in February, its negative impact on the market was fully reflected in February. However, this effect was released in advance in 2012, which affected the demand for car purchase to some extent. Coupled with the high base in early 2011, domestic sales in January have fallen significantly.
In the “cold winter†market environment, the domestic mainstream heavy truck companies are almost unable to escape the fate of a sharp decline in sales. Among them, Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle, FAW Jiefang, China National Heavy Duty Truck and other traditional heavy truck giants, although still accounted for most of the market in January, but the sales have fallen by more than 50% year-on-year; and Futian Auman, Shaanxi Auto The decline of companies such as Beiben exceeded 60%. As for the declining market in 2011, SAIC Iveco Hongyan and Jianghuai, which performed well, had a greater decline in sales compared to the same period in 80%.
In the face of such a bleak heavy truck market, some analysts frankly stated that apart from the adverse effect of the Spring Festival's premature and high base on sales volume, the current downturn in the heavy truck industry is fundamentally still because the macroeconomic level has not yet become apparent. A good signal for recovery.
As we all know, for the heavy truck industry that has the economic “barometerâ€, its market performance is closely related to the macro economy. At present, there is still great uncertainty in the domestic macro-economy, not only that monetary policy tightening has not been significantly loosened, the pace of slowdown in the growth of fixed-asset investment has not yet stopped, and although the growth rate of road freight volume is still relatively stable year-on-year, However, it did not show an upward trend; coupled with the growth of major industrial products such as steel and cement, the growth rate is still at a historically low level. All the above indications show that for the heavy truck industry, the favorable factors supporting the recovery of terminal demand have not appeared. The next step in the development of the market is still to be observed in the subsequent changes in the above signals.
Although in the short term, sales in the heavy truck industry are unlikely to show a clear upward trend, it seems to some people in the industry that the signs of improvement are beginning to show. It is believed that the heavy truck market is expected to start as the fixed asset investment projects are started one after another. According to relevant sources, in February, orders for some domestic heavy truck companies began to rebound sharply, and the sales season for heavy trucks is expected to arrive in early February. This point has also been confirmed by the change in the number of orders for the transmission gearbox from the heavy truck industry in Shaanxi Province.
Fast Group said that in January 2012, the order volume of Fast Transmission was only 30,000 units, but this figure had increased to 45,000 units by February. It can be seen that the heavy truck market has shown signs of stabilization.
Although such judgments are pleasing, the more general view is that with the gradual improvement of the fundamentals of the heavy truck industry, the “spring†of the heavy truck market will not be available until the second quarter. In the second quarter, the sales of domestic heavy trucks will remain at the same level as the same period of last year, and will stop falling. By the third and fourth quarters, it will increase by more than 30%, and the annual growth rate is expected to reach 6%. With the easing of inflationary pressures and the acceleration of the macroeconomic situation, the central government has set the tone for stable growth, price control, and structural adjustment, and implemented a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. In this context, after the second quarter, infrastructure investment will improve, and logistics and other related needs will gradually rise. Coupled with the protection of housing and water conservancy projects on the schedule for a long time, the demand for logistics vehicles and special vehicles for engineering construction will also be boosted.
In some people's view, the reason why the future heavy truck market is worth looking forward to, there is a very important reason, that is, the de-stocking of heavy truck companies is drawing to a close.
It is understood that in early 2011, domestic heavy truck companies and distributors were over-optimistic in the market, resulting in a large amount of inventory accumulated before the peak season. However, under the influence of multiple adverse factors such as domestic macroeconomic adjustments, excess capacity, and continuous decline in the profitability of logistics transportation, sales of heavy trucks declined significantly in 2011. This makes both companies and distributors have to start digesting inventory continuously. At present, after 10 months of hard work, this work has achieved results.
According to the data from the China Automobile Association, in December 2011, the output of domestic heavy trucks first appeared in production and sales after an interval of 10 months. Moreover, from the recent research on the production of related companies, it can be found that in January when heavy truck companies scheduled their production, they no longer deliberately reduced output, but actively added a small amount of inventory. This shows that the company's destocking cycle is coming to an end. The closing of the company's destocking work means that the heavy truck inventory is expected to cover in the first quarter of 2012, thus pulling some sales. But in the end, the real increase in sales of heavy trucks also needs to rely on the recovery of terminal demand.
In addition, the sudden increase in the domestic heavy truck inventory brought about by the blowout growth in 2010, in the context of slowing demand in 2011, the portion of its stock that was consumed ahead of time has also been gradually digested. Therefore, the resistance of high inventory to sales growth will also be lifted, leading to a new round of heavy truck purchases.
At the same time, the implementation of relevant policies such as the “Regulations on the Protection of Highway Safetyâ€, the management of toll highways, and the reduction of the burden on logistics companies will also help improve the demand for heavy trucks. The improvement of heavy truck industry policies such as “Restrictions on Fuel Consumption for Heavy Commercial Vehicles†and subsidies for commercial vehicle energy-saving vehicles may also stimulate consumption of heavy trucks, which in turn will boost sales.
Based on this, although industry players currently hold more pessimistic expectations for the 2012 heavy-duty truck market, their rebound in sales is still worth looking forward to, and it is expected that the sales will show a clear low-end and high-end trend throughout the year.
While the market is expected to achieve recoverable growth, the demand structure of the entire heavy truck industry is expected to further divide. Some analysts believe that last year's worst-performing tractors have gradually stabilized since the third quarter. Next, with the gradual emergence of logistics costs such as freight transmission, excess capacity consumption, and credit relaxation, the demand for tractor-trailers is expected to rebound in 2012.
However, engineering vehicles are affected by the decline in real estate and infrastructure investment, sales will continue to be curbed, and recovery time will lag behind tractors. At the same time, the deepening of governance will promote the deepening of the heavy truck lightening trend in the medium and long term, which may result in the downward movement of the sales structure of trucks, and some of the medium and heavy truck sales will be better.
The domestic heavy truck market sold 34,000 units in January 2012.