In the methanol futures research organized by Zhengzhou Group, the reporter learned that the industry has long been looking forward to methanol futures. At present, delivery warehouses are ready and traders also show an active interest in participating. Industry sources said that after the listing of methanol futures, China is expected to become the international pricing center for methanol.

Delivery warehouse ready

For commodity futures, delivery warehouses must strictly guarantee the quality and quantity of goods, and play a crucial role in the storage of sellers, registration of warehouse receipts, and delivery of goods by buyers.

Jiangyin Huaxi Chemical Terminal Co., Ltd. is a joint venture between Jiangsu Huaxi Village Co., Ltd. and a foreign company. It specializes in the storage of liquid chemicals and has been selected by Zheng Merchant as the first delivery warehouse for methanol futures.

“We are ready.” Chen Lang, general manager of Jiangyin Huaxi Chemical Terminal Co., Ltd., said that the terminal reserved 30,000 tons of storage capacity for methanol futures, and made preparations for methanol futures before it was put into storage.

According to reports, Huaxi Chemical Terminal is 50,000 tons, and the reservoir area has 89 tanks with a total capacity of 300,000 cubic meters. Due to the wide variety of chemical liquids and their different physical and chemical properties, some tanks are spherical or some are column-shaped for safe storage. They also need to maintain safe temperatures and require heating or cooling.

Since 2007, domestic demand for methanol has grown rapidly, and consumption has been mainly concentrated in East China and North China. Consumption in East China accounts for 45% of the country's total, while in North China it accounts for 15.5%. The Yangtze River Delta region is both a demand for chemical products and a distribution center for chemical products. And, 80% of China's methanol imports are concentrated in this area. In the methanol price, due to the large proportion of freight, Zhengshang set the main designated delivery warehouse in East China. It is also in line with the principle of “establishing a warehouse in the sales area and taking into account the production area” and is close to the market demand.

Traders participate in high enthusiasm

For the upcoming methanol futures, many traders have expressed a strong interest in participating.

Yao Jiarong, general manager of Jiangsu Huiwei International Trade Co., Ltd., said that at present, there are methanol electronic trading markets in Ningbo, Beijing, Zhangjiagang, Changzhou and Nanjing. Traders mainly participate in the commodity COSCO Group before the listing of futures products. Period market to avoid price risk, and most traders have 3 to 5 years of experience in electronic trading. He believes that after the introduction of methanol futures, many companies will participate in the methanol futures market.

"We will definitely participate in hedging and will do some speculation appropriately," he said with a smile.

Methanol prices are relatively volatile. In 2008, it reached a maximum of 5,300 yuan per ton, and then it plunged to 1,600 yuan per ton. The tragic scene has still been vividly remembered by market participants. In the recent major downturn in the commodity market, methanol was also not spared. Because there was no corresponding risk hedging tool, many traders suffered heavy losses.

"A lot of the traders I contact want to participate in futures." Chen Lang said that with the future of this risk management tool, companies can hedge profits through hedging, to avoid price risk.

Increase pricing voice

China is the world's largest methanol consumer and importer, and imports mainly come from the Middle East. Due to the lack of a domestic, credible price as a benchmark, negotiating bargaining power with foreign parties is relatively passive.

"The methanol futures have solved this problem after being listed and strengthened the domestic methanol companies' bargaining power." Wu Chi, chief operating officer of Jingyi Investment Management Co., Ltd. (Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone) said that due to price discovery in the futures market, future methanol futures prices Will become a trade guide price directly.

The upcoming Methanol Futures is the second chemical product of Zhengshang following PTA, both of which are not yet available in the international futures market. At present, Zhengzhou PTA Futures has gradually played a pricing function in the domestic and international markets. "After the listing of methanol futures, there is still a long way to go to become an international pricing center, but we have this confidence," said Wang Xiaoming, senior director of Zhengzhou News Information Department.

Threshold 12,000 yuan in methanol futures or cash money market

According to industry estimates, the initial margin of methanol futures listing is approximately RMB 12,000/hand; after listing, it may open higher and lower; investors should pay attention to the risk-free arbitrage trading brought about by the abnormal price spread during the initial period of listing – the industry calls it "Pay money market."

The threshold is moderate

According to the contract text published by the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, the futures exchange unit for methanol is 50 tons/hand, the minimum price is 1 yuan/ton, the minimum trading margin is 6% of the contract value, and the contract month is 1-12 months. The unit is 50 tons.

Dong Ji Futures Analyst Kyrgyzstan’s affiliated company’s team’s team’s responsibility is based on the incident’s rumors. The affiliate’s profitability is priced at RMB 2,000/ton. If the futures company raises the margin to 8%, then One-handed futures contracts will require 3000*50*0.08=12,000 yuan, which is most likely the minimum threshold for investing in methanol futures.

He said that despite the continuation of the big contract idea, the methanol futures trading unit is slightly lower than fuel oil, coke and lead futures. This will help methanol futures get rid of the liquidity shortage after the major contracts. However, he also believes that a full-blown methanol future still requires a process. “After all, as a new tool and new breed, industry chain companies and futures investors understand and become familiar with methanol futures.”

Kyrgyzstan's 椿 椿 椿 乇鹬 觯 咭 咭 咭 咭 诓蹲 诓蹲 诓蹲 诓蹲 诓蹲 诓蹲 诓蹲 诓蹲 跗诘 跗诘 跗诘 跗诘 跗诘 跗诘 跗诘 跗诘 捡 捡 捡 捡 捡 捡 捡 捡 捡 捡 捡 捡 捡 捡” Quote: "If you have a spot on hand, when you notice that the difference between the futures price and the spot price is too large or too small, you can make a decisive shot, buy or sell methanol futures accordingly, and you can profit from the return when the futures returns to the spot price. . "Kyrgyzstan? Lips? Special table? 缦 缦 自 自 自 自 芍 芍 芍 芍 芍 芍 芍 诨跎 诨跎 诨跎 诨跎 诨跎 诨跎 诨跎 诨跎 诨跎 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 笔 笔? As a result, it provided a "big meal" to prepare enough arbitrageurs.

Galaxy Futures researcher Liu Yi reminded that for ordinary investors, the trading unit for methanol is 50 tons/hand, which is less than 100 tons/hand of coke, but much larger than the one ton/hand of Zhangjiagang electronic disk, especially the habit. Customers who trade on electronic disks need to pay more attention; in addition, trading volatility will increase. Since the minimum change price is 1 yuan/ton, trading one-handed means a fluctuation of at least 50 yuan.

For institutional investors, the Methanol Futures Contract stipulates that "customers who cannot deliver or receive special VAT invoices may not be delivered; customers who do not have the qualification to produce, store, use, operate or transport methanol may not participate in the delivery of methanol." Therefore, individual investors cannot enter the delivery month. Moreover, if a corporate customer has just entered the methanol field, assuming that he wants to apply for a hedge quota or a delivery, then he must go through a “hazardous chemical business license”.

Liu Yi also introduced that methanol futures contracts are not limited to futures companies and customers (including interim arbitrage positions). The general month is 1000 lots, 300 months before the delivery month, and the delivery month is 100 lots. (The limit for physical customers is 0). Therefore, if the trader has a large number of trades, he needs to prepare early and apply for a hedge against the general month or approaching the delivery month.

Stock market or fresh speculation

In the A-share market, related companies in the methanol industry chain include Yuanxing Energy, Yunwei, Tianke, Tianmao Group, Tianfu Thermoelectricity, Baotailong, and Hualu Hengsheng. Among them, Yuanxing Energy is a leading company, and methanol accounts for more than 60% of the company's operating income.

The habit of Kyrgyzstan's goodwill, divulging, apricots, and apricots does not rule out the possibility that the relevant concept stocks will be fired, but subject matter speculation is generally not long-term, which must be guarded. But in the long term The listing of methanol futures provides related companies with tools to avoid price fluctuations, which will be good for the listed companies in the long term.

Regarding the trend of the methanol futures after listing, Liu Yi believes that due to the multiple impacts of funds speculation and weak downstream demand, it may go out of the “high before and after the low” trend. “Recently, with the increase in prices of domestic bulk raw materials and the news of methanol market, Zhangjiagang Electronic Disk and East China methanol prices began to rise slightly. Jiangsu's actual shipments were at 3050-3080 yuan/ton, up 20-30 yuan/ton. , traders reluctant to sell, and the maintenance of the northwest plant stopped, methanol prices have upward momentum."

However, from a medium-term point of view, the outlook for methanol is bleak: First, with the onset of winter, the domestic home improvement industry has begun to slow down, coupled with the suppression of the real estate market, the demand for formaldehyde has continued to decline, the entire industry operating rate is insufficient, the call for methanol prices higher; The market price of acetic acid continued to decline, and the post-holiday price fell by RMB 300-350/t. Currently, the acetic acid market is infrequently queried, trading is light, traders are not active, and pressure is placed on the price of methanol. Third, the overall output of liquefied petroleum gas The goods were sluggish, and the major domestic refineries had warehouse storage requirements at the end of the month, and the prices dropped drastically, lowering the price of dimethyl ether as a whole and further suppressing the price of methanol.

The Kyrgyzstan title is generally the peak demand for methanol in the month of January, but this year, the downstream consumption has not been started yet. The demand appears to be “not busy”, and the spot price of methanol has not risen. The main contract listed on Friday will be the March contract next year (1203 contract), and the general March methanol price began to fall. He expects the possibility of a lower methanol futures listing.

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