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As the industry economy continues to slump, the market is generally pessimistic about the investment opportunities of the petrochemical industry in 2016.
But the author believes that this year, whether it is overcapacity or oil prices are approaching the turning point of change, especially as the country is pushing for supply-side reforms, it is very likely that the unqualified backward production capacity will be forcibly withdrawn through the hard constraints of environmental protection, and state-owned enterprises in the industry The merger and reorganization will also accelerate, which will lead to major investment opportunities.
The implementation to specific industries, because with the continuous increase in domestic car stocks, replacement tires will become more demanding, and in the future there is likely to be a large inflection point of natural rubber prices, will stimulate the tire industry's restocking needs.
Supply-side reform gave birth to the opportunity <br> <br> chemical industry since 2011, has been going on for nearly five years in the doldrums, it is rooted in overcapacity, superimposed lack of demand.
Only some of the opportunities come from the supply contraction brought by environmental pressure to some industries, such as dyes and glyphosate. Therefore, when the production capacity is cleared, it will become the fundamental driving force for the absolute boom.
If the cycle of natural evolution evolves naturally, it can almost be asserted that the profit margin of chemical companies this year may exceed 2008. However, whether or not there is a great deal of prosperity and a decline in prosperity is an eternal law of the cycle.
The author believes that at present, whether it is oil or overcapacity are approaching the turning point of change, and supply-side reform is undoubtedly the industry's biggest change this year, but also bred huge investment opportunities.
In the past few years, heavy asset companies in the industry basically relied on bank loans to survive. The debt ratio of the industry has also reached over 70%, which is difficult to maintain for a long period of time. If it is not resolved, the market will most likely suffer the most pessimistic Deduction, that is, "Minsk moment."
In recent years, although the country has adopted a series of measures such as fiscal and monetary stimulus to stimulate demand, it has only alleviated the inability to eradicate overcapacity in the industry. In the future, only the large-scale bankruptcy and reorganization of enterprises will realize the clear-cutting of production capacity, which will ultimately solve the problem.
If only relying on the spontaneous power of the market, the large-scale bankruptcy of enterprises will appear in 2017-2018, when the production capacity is expected to clear gradually, but this process will undoubtedly be very painful.
The supply-side reform that reflects the will of the country will undoubtedly accelerate the speed of production capacity clearing and reconstruct the balance between supply and demand in a relatively short period of time. Once successful, the future cyclical industry will re-enter the benign profit track.
Since this year's supply clearing is likely to be led by the government rather than the market's self-issuance, it is difficult to make forward-looking judgments from the current fundamentals such as the company's financial status and industry prosperity.
For state-owned enterprises, the most likely means of de-capacity is mergers and reorganizations among large-scale enterprises. If iconic mergers and acquisitions between traditional companies take place this year to reduce production capacity, market enthusiasm may be ignited even if fundamentals are improved. It will take time, but the stock price will still be a big-scale reaction.
For private enterprises, the most realistic way to reduce production capacity is to strengthen environmental protection constraints. Companies that require environmental protection to fail to meet standards must establish new environmental protection devices to meet rigid standards.
For most manufacturing industries, profitability has been very thin, and companies that are able to have new environmental protection devices represent the highest level in the industry.
Therefore, with the help of environmental protection, enterprises can be effectively screened and real elimination of backward production capacity can be realized. At this point in time, the author judged that it is highly probable that after the Central Economic Conference, it is expected to start from the end of the first quarter of this year to the beginning of the second quarter.
For the stock selection standard, the preferred industry is already at the bottom, the industrial concentration is increasing, the demand is relatively stable, and the state-owned enterprises account for a certain percentage of the industry, but they basically belong to the industry's highest-cost production capacity and have no long-term survival value target.
In the context of supply-side reforms and the country's strong capacity-to-capacity, this part of the backward state-owned production capacity will inevitably choose to withdraw. Then, the remaining high-quality enterprises will be expected to enjoy the dividends of increased industry concentration and improved profitability.
Tire bottoming out the possibility of large <br> <br> due to the "dual" landing led to a substantial decline in exports, the tire industry in 2015, the economy fell to its lowest point. However, I believe that the probability of a reversal of the tire industry's economy this year is not small, for the following reasons:
First, the demand for tire replacement has grown dramatically.
In the past few years, benefiting from the high annual growth in car sales, the domestic demand for tires comes from the high proportion of new car accessories. Although the growth rate of car sales will gradually decline in the future, the inventory is already 2.3 times that of 2009, and it still maintains high growth, and the demand for replacement is increasing.
The average service life of tires is 3-5 years. It is expected that the large number of cars sold in China in early 2016 will also enter the peak of tire replacement. From the American experience, the ratio of replacing and adding tires is 3:1, while that of China is 3:2.
Therefore, as the stock increases, there will be room for further growth in replacement demand in the future.
What is more crucial is that the supporting tires in the vehicle market are mainly foreign-owned brands, and the replacement market is mainly domestic brands. Therefore, in the future, for domestic enterprises, the replacement market is very promising.
Second, the economy is at an absolute low point, and the industry is doing its best.
In 2015, the "double reverse" formally landed, and the biggest industry bad has already been done. And from 2010 onwards, the tire industry's economy has fallen sharply and has lasted for 5 years. It is basically in the longest recession period. The current profitability of the industry is also the lowest point in history. It is basically insignificant and many companies have stopped production. qiut the market.
The third is the rebound of resources, increasing the probability of natural rubber upwards.
Natural rubber is the most sensitive target of price elasticity in resources. Since its decline in 2011, the decline time has reached 5 years, and the decline rate has also reached 75%. The rebound opportunities in the future are very large, which will greatly stimulate the demand for tire inventory.
The scorching summer is here. I think all of you are taking measures to reduce the sun and heat. Today I summarized the basic knowledge and installation skills of the loader air conditioning system to share with the majority of loader drivers and friends, so that you can enjoy this summer To a cool driving environment.
1. The composition of the loader air conditioning system
The air conditioning systems used on loaders all use a method called evaporative compression refrigeration system. This system consists of a compressor, condenser, liquid storage and drying bottle, expansion valve and evaporator. These components are connected by aluminum pipes or hoses, and the refrigerant is placed in this sealed piping system (refrigeration cycle).
Second, the principle of air conditioning refrigeration cycle
The air-conditioning compressor is driven to rotate by the engine. The high-temperature and high-pressure refrigerant vapor discharged from the compressor enters the condenser through the high-pressure hose. Because the temperature of the high-temperature and high-pressure refrigerant vapor is higher than the temperature of the air outside the car, the condenser fan is used to make the condenser The heat of the refrigerant vapor is taken away by the air outside the vehicle, condensing the high temperature and high pressure refrigerant vapor into a higher temperature and high pressure liquid, which flows into the drying bottle through the high pressure hose, and flows through the expansion valve after being dried and filtered.
Under the throttling action of the expansion valve, the refrigerant becomes a low-temperature, low-pressure liquid and enters the air-conditioning evaporator. It vaporizes at a constant pressure and absorbs the heat of the air outside the evaporator tube, so that the air flowing through the evaporator is circulated in the Cabin. The lowered temperature becomes cold air, which is sent into the cabin by a blower to lower the air temperature in the cabin. The vaporized refrigerant vapor is sucked and compressed by the compressor, and then becomes high-temperature, high-pressure refrigerant gas, which is pressed into the condenser through a high-pressure hose, completing a refrigeration cycle of the air conditioning system.
Three, operation panel instructions
The control panel on the outer cover is as shown in the figure. The functions of these switches and indicators are:
1. Refrigeration switch: used to control the work of the air-conditioning compressor.
2. Air volume switch; used to control the speed of the evaporator fan in order to select the appropriate air volume.
3. Indicator light: red light on means that the blower is running and the system is working; green light on means that the compressor is started and the refrigeration system is working.
Adjusting the angle of the air outlet can change the angle and direction of the cold air blowing; adjusting the air volume switch can obtain three levels of air volume: high, medium and low.
Fourth, the installation skills of the main components
The installation of the main components is a crucial part of the air conditioning system debugging. The quality of the main components of the air conditioner is completed by the supplier and the OEM. The main components of the air conditioner can only be regarded as semi-finished products from the supplier to the OEM. They must The system can be connected through the OEM to form a complete body. Therefore, the quality of the installation of air conditioners in the production line of the main engine factory directly affects the quality of the air conditioning system.
Unscrew the dust cap when the compressor pipe heads are connected. Do not place the pipe heads below the level to prevent lubricant leakage. When connecting the belt with the driving pulley, check the belt tension straightness, and the allowable error is between 0~1.5 mm. The method of checking the belt tension is as follows: use the middle finger to forcefully press down on the center belt point of the two wheels, the elastic pressure range is between 4~7mm.
During the transportation process of the condenser assembly, be careful to handle it gently, and do not damage the collecting pipe and rectangular pipe to prevent refrigerant leakage. When installing, pay attention to the big pipe head facing up and the small pipe head down. Unscrew the dust cap when the pipe heads are connected. When the pipe head is locked, use two wrenches to tighten it in opposite directions, because the condenser is Aluminum, so pay attention to force to prevent the lock from breaking. Avoid high-temperature areas and sharp-angle areas when wiring lines to prevent burns or wear.
The liquid storage drying bottle should be opened after the preparations are completed to prevent the inhalation of moisture in the air. There is a glass sight glass on the head of the liquid storage drying bottle. Be careful not to scratch it to prevent refrigerant leakage. Pay special attention to the butt joint of the tube head. The direction of the arrow on the end marked with "â†" on the liquid storage drying bottle must be connected to the evaporator.
During the transportation process of the evaporator assembly, be careful to handle with care and do not damage the pipeline to prevent refrigerant leakage. Unscrew the dust cap when the pipe heads are connected. When the pipe head is locked, use two wrenches to tighten it in opposite directions, so that the expansion valve cannot be loosened.
5
The hot summer has come, and the main components of the air-conditioning system have become the main loss materials in the season. A loader without an air-conditioning system cannot be regarded as a complete machine. Drivers and friends will inevitably have to drive the loader in an environment without cooling. All kinds of discomfort, which easily increase the operational risk. To understand the basic knowledge of the loader air conditioning system, master the installation skills of the main components, to ensure that the loader air conditioning system can be stably refrigerated, and to create a cool and comfortable driving environment, which is very important to our loader drivers
Supply-side reform will drive the tire industry