2011 is the first year of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” and is also a turning point in China's auto industry's bid farewell to high-speed growth and steady development. Energy-saving and new-energy vehicle support policies have been introduced one after another. New progress has been made in the adjustment of industrial structure and the automobile industry has entered more. It is an important and critical period of development. Looking ahead to 2012, China's auto production growth is expected to stabilize and pick up slightly, export growth will slow down, and the development of commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles will continue to diverge. Energy-saving and new energy vehicles are expected to achieve rapid development.

This year's production and sales growth rate is about 6%

(I) The slight increase in production growth and stable growth It is expected that in 2012, the unfavorable factors of automobile exit to the countryside, car replacement and automobile purchase tax reduction policies will be basically eliminated, and the adverse impact of Japan's earthquake component supply shortage will gradually disappear. The macro-control policies will be adjusted in a timely and appropriate manner. The intensity and scope of energy-saving and new-energy vehicle demonstration and promotion will be further increased, but automobile consumption will still be subject to some restrictions, and restrictions on automobile consumption will further spread, and automobile consumption demand may be affected. Severely suppressed, the structural surplus caused by the expansion of the capacity of minibuses and self-owned cars in the past two years will continue. Affected by the above factors, it is expected that the growth rate of automobile production and sales in 2012 is expected to stabilize and pick up, but the margin is not large, and the growth rate of production and sales is about 6%.

(II) Slowdown in export growth In 2011, China’s auto exports achieved rapid growth, but the growth rate began to decline. From January to September, the total vehicle exports were 625,100, a cumulative increase of 54.43% year-on-year, and a decrease of 24.57 percentage points from the growth rate of the same period of last year. It is expected that China's auto exports will maintain an overall growth in 2012, and the growth rate will slow down.

(III) The development trend of commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles will continue to diverge. It is expected that in 2012, under the background that new investment hotspots have not yet formed, China’s investment in fixed assets will further slow down. Affected by this, the momentum of declining demand in the freight market will not With great changes, the year-on-year growth of commercial vehicle production and sales will continue to decline, and the rate of decline is expected to narrow.

Compared with commercial vehicles, the demand for passenger vehicles achieved rapid growth in 2011. From January to October, the total production and sales of passenger cars increased by 5.97% and 5.86% respectively. It is expected that China's macro-control policies will be fine-tuned at a suitable and timely pace in 2012. The economic growth rate will continue to run smoothly with a slight fall. The level of residents' income will continue to increase. The demand for passenger vehicles will continue to be rigid, and the growth rate of production and sales of passenger cars is expected to stabilize. increase.

(IV) Energy-saving and new-energy vehicles are expected to achieve rapid development In 2011, China’s automobile consumption policies were promptly adjusted, pilot projects for demonstration and promotion of energy-saving and new energy vehicles were launched, and procurement policies shifted from encouraging purchase of cars to subsidizing energy-saving and new energy vehicles. The market share of energy-saving automobiles has risen sharply. As of June 2011, the market share has increased from 22% in the same period last year to 34.9%.

It is expected that in 2012, with the introduction and implementation of the “Energy-saving and new energy automobile industry development plan” and the increasingly stringent requirements for automobile exhaust emission standards and the “dual” stimulus policies of the national and local governments, China’s energy-saving and new energy vehicles Will enter the period of accelerated development.

The production cost continues to rise (I) The pressure on automobile consumption environment is further increased It is expected that in 2012, the consumer environment facing the development of the automobile industry will further deteriorate, which will form a major constraint on the development of the automobile market. First, the issue of energy supply will become more and more prominent, and the possibility of rising oil prices still exists.

Second, the impact of traffic congestion on the auto market will become more and more serious. In order to curb the further deterioration of traffic congestion, the automobile purchase restriction policy and the tail number restriction will continue. The demand in the auto market will be severely restrained. Factors such as the purchase restriction policy may pull down the national automobile growth rate by 3 to 5 percentage points.

(II) Continuous increase in production and operating costs Extend profit margins of auto companies China's auto industry is facing a grim situation in which production and operating costs have risen as a whole. First, the price of major raw materials for steel in China is expected to increase by 5% to 10% in 2012. The second is rising labor costs. Third, the cost of circulation and transportation is still high, with an average freight rate per ton of goods rising by about 10%. Fourth, high financing costs are expected to increase by about 10% to 20%. Fifth, the exchange rate of the renminbi continued to rise. Since 2011, the renminbi has appreciated about 4.7%. Affected by the above factors, China's auto manufacturers still face greater cost pressures, and the increase in corporate profits will further decline.

(3) The issue of structural overcapacity still highlights that China’s auto overcapacity is a structural excess, not an overall excess of the entire industry, and that automakers with special brand names should be the most noteworthy. Since 2011, the sales of self-owned brands have fallen sharply, and the output of seven auto makers such as Chery, BYD, Hafei and FAW Car has all experienced negative growth. It is expected that in 2012, the auto production capacity of China's major auto companies, especially those of self-owned brand auto companies, will continue to be digested. The new regulations on new procurement of official vehicles are expected to stimulate auto brand auto sales, but their effect on the improvement of sales situation is limited. China's own brand The decline in automobile production and sales will continue.

(IV) The development of new energy vehicles still needs substantial breakthroughs. The bottlenecks in new energy vehicle technologies and markets are numerous, and the uncertainties in battery technology, supply chain, resource security, infrastructure, economics, and market attractiveness are relatively large. It is expected that the high cost of new energy vehicles will still exist in 2012. The charging infrastructure needs to be improved. Consumers' recognition of electric vehicles needs to be improved. The market development model remains to be innovated. Pilot city supporting policies and measures need to be further improved. China's new energy sources Automobiles still face greater technical and market risks in the overall development.

Industrial structure should be adjusted to independent innovation to strengthen (a) improve and implement energy-saving and new energy vehicle support policies First, as soon as possible the introduction of energy-saving and new energy vehicles "12th Five-Year Plan", promote the coordinated development of automobile consumption and resource environment, speed up the city The road traffic system construction encourages consumption of energy-saving and environment-friendly small-displacement vehicles; the second is to improve the automobile consumption promotion policy centering on energy conservation and emission reduction, and increase the subsidy amount for energy-saving vehicles with good energy-saving effect such as hybrid vehicles, and increase the government Purchasing energy-saving and new energy vehicles, and encouraging enterprises and institutions to purchase energy-saving and new energy vehicles. The third is to implement the “Notice on Further Implementing the Pilot Work of Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicle Demonstration and Promotion”, strengthen the supervision and inspection of the organization, planning, supervision and evaluation of the implementation of the pilot city policies, and support the encouragement of enterprises in strengthening energy-saving emission reduction technologies. R&D and application, development of energy-saving, environmentally friendly small-emission engine models; Fourth, we must research and develop the rural automobile market, research and formulate policies and measures, guide enterprises to develop energy-saving and environment-friendly vehicles suitable for the rural market, and accelerate the establishment and improvement of rural vehicle consumption. network of.

(II) Speeding up the pace of industrial restructuring First, we must continue to strengthen the merger and reorganization of auto companies, support and encourage various types of social capital to participate in shares and control auto companies, and encourage auto companies to acquire cross-regional, cross-industry, and cross-ownership systems. Mergers, elimination of institutional barriers, and giving full play to the important role of market mechanisms; Second, we must promote the adjustment of the structure of automotive products to the direction of energy conservation and environmental protection, and guide the increase in consumption of small-displacement vehicles through taxation and other economic measures, and promote the adjustment of product structure.

The third is to optimize and standardize the corporate governance structure. For the acquisition and reorganization between industry leading companies, a strict fair competition and anti-monopoly link review system shall be implemented to improve the effect of restructuring.

(III) Efforts to improve the industry's independent innovation capability First, we must increase support for the innovation of automobile companies, set up special funds for core technologies for self-owned brands, subsidize research and development expenses for export products of auto brands, and give credit to sellers of export products. Support to foster and foster independent brands. The second is to increase financial investment, implement energy-saving and new energy vehicle technology innovation projects, and coordinate the links of technology development, engineering, standard formulation, and market application, and build a technological innovation system that combines production, study and research. The third is to increase the policy support for small and medium-sized auto parts companies to improve their innovation capabilities, and to support the cooperation, exchanges, and innovation between small and medium auto parts enterprises and large-scale enterprises and universities.

(IV) Adjusting Export Policies Actively exploring the automobile export market First, we must continue to regulate the order of automobile exports and raise the threshold for export of automobile companies. Further integrate export license authorization and cooperation between manufacturers and foreign trade companies, coordinate the relationship between vehicle manufacturers and chassis manufacturers, and strictly punish companies that intentionally disturb the export market and vicious price competition; The automakers with their own development potential will expand their exports, release production capacity, encourage the export of self-owned high-end passenger cars and commercial vehicles through export credits and tax incentives, and upgrade the international image of their own brands. Third, strengthen the construction of information networks for exporting auto companies. Implement effective guidance, speed up the establishment and improvement of foreign technical barriers to trade (TBT) information center and database, provide automotive companies with changes in major trading countries' technical regulations, emission standards, and policy structure, and prevent encountering trade bastions.