The downturn in January began to pass to dealers. A few days ago, the China Automobile Dealers Association released the “Results of Automobile Dealer Inventory Survey” in January 2017. The data shows that the comprehensive inventory factor of auto dealers in January was 1.60, up 95% from the previous month and up 62% from the same period last year. The dealer inventory level was above the warning line. This is also the first time the dealer's inventory coefficient has returned to the warning line in the past six months. Analysts pointed out that with the changes in policies, the expected growth rate of the domestic auto market this year will return to single digits, dealers will bid farewell to the "car shortage" situation when the market was booming last year, and the inventory pressure is known to return.

8 brand stocks have been more than two months

From the inventory of various brands, in January, the inventory coefficient of joint venture brands, imported brands and independent brands increased compared with last month. Among them, the joint-venture brand inventory coefficient was 1.51, up 144% from the previous month; the imported brand inventory coefficient was 1.18, up 4% from the previous month; the independent brand inventory coefficient was 1.92, up 100% from the previous month. Joint venture brands and independent brands are located above the warning line.

There are 8 brands with stock depths of more than two months, namely Dongfeng Citroen, SAIC Volkswagen, Dongfeng Peugeot, Dongfeng Yueda Kia, Beijing Hyundai, Chevrolet, Buick and Baojun. Correspondingly, in December last year, no brand had a stock depth of more than two months.

At present, the dealer inventory survey of this month is mainly the top 100 dealers group of China's automobile circulation industry in 2015. It covers more than 1,000 4S stores in most provinces of the country and has extensive brand coverage. It has increased to 55 automobile brands based on the automobile brands that are mainly mass-produced and sold in the original domestic market.

Inventories during the year may not be optimistic

According to the common practice in the same industry in the world, the inventory coefficient is between 0.8 and 1.2, reflecting that the inventory is in a reasonable range; the inventory coefficient is >1.5, reflecting that the inventory has reached the alert level, which needs attention; the inventory coefficient is >2.5, reflecting the overstock, operating pressure And the risks are very large.

Why is the inventory factor soaring in January so much?

The analysis pointed out that the policy of halving the purchase tax in January began to fall back. The market overdraft effect in December last year began to appear in January this year. And due to the close of the Spring Festival holiday in January, the working days decreased, and the car sales dropped significantly. As a result, the dealer inventory pressure has increased, and the dealer's inventory level has returned to the warning line.

According to data from the China Automobile Association, in January, China's automobile production and sales were 2.369 million units and 2.52 million units respectively. The output decreased by 3.9% compared with the same period of the previous year, and the sales volume increased by 0.2% over the same period of the previous year. In particular, the passenger car market performance was even sluggish. In January, production and sales were 207.2 units and 2.218 million units respectively, down 4.2% and 1.1% respectively over the same period of last year, and the growth rate was lower than the overall 0.3 and 1.3 percentage points.

According to the China Automobile Dealers Association, due to the small overall working days in February and the fact that nearly half a month is in the Spring Festival holiday, it is expected that the automobile market will continue to be in a cold state in January, and dealer inventory pressure is still relatively large. Therefore, the China Automobile Dealers Association recommends that dealers still reasonably estimate actual market demand based on actual conditions and reasonably control inventory levels to prevent excessive inventory pressure and lead to operational risks.

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