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In the past golden September, the heavy-duty truck market has achieved substantial growth.
"According to past laws, September is generally the off-season for heavy truck sales. This year's high growth rate is really rare." A truck dealer in the southwest region is responsible for Liberal Arts (a pseudonym) told reporters. In September this year, the heavy truck market sold 62,000 vehicles, an increase of 44.8% year-on-year, an increase of 20.3% from the 51,600 vehicles in August, and cumulative sales from January to September this year also increased by 14.9%.
However, even if the market is so "prosperous", the face of manufacturers and dealers is not "cloudy and sunny". In addition to the macroeconomic factors, the national IV emission standards are still "still obscure", and the uncertainty of the policies is an important factor affecting the market.
As of now, when the National IV policy will be implemented nationwide, when the National III model will be suspended, there is still no accurate official information. In addition to constantly speculating and inquiring about the news, heavy truck companies and dealers can only do nothing but wait for the "other boots" to land.
September heavy truck market across the board
In September, a number of car companies showed positive growth. The top three FAW, Dongfeng, and China National Heavy Duty Trucks sold 13,700 heavy trucks, 12,200 and 9,000 heavy trucks, an increase of 86.2%, 40% and 30.3% respectively.
“The recovery of the macro economy and the recovery of the logistics industry are one of the reasons.†said He Jie, director of the assembly plant of Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle Co., Ltd. In September, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 51; in August, the total logistics of the whole society increased by 2.7% from the previous month to 11.5 trillion yuan on a 1.14 trillion yuan in July, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%.
"Compared to the macro economy, the biggest impact on sales is the new China IV government." The distributor is responsible for the Liberal Arts Li told reporters that since the previously rumored national IV standards will be implemented on July 1 this year, many distributors are referring manufacturers. A large number of national III models were bought out in advance and hoarded. For the less powerful secondary dealers, they usually get goods from the first-tier dealers because they can't afford the relevant costs.
“Although the country has not announced relevant enforcement policies, more and more cities have begun to implement the local version of the National IV emission standards; consumers will certainly want to be able to catch the last train of the purchasing country III model, which also stimulated the terminal. The early release of demand." Wen Li said.
Under the stimulation of end-user demand soaring, the manufacturers' production plans went straight to the "peak." He Jie said that the current Nissan plan for Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles has been increased from 550 units/day in peak season to 670 units/day, and in order to meet customer demand as much as possible, the company has also increased the adjustment frequency of its production scheduling. "Dealers are responding to order information every day so that we can update our schedule every week."
National IV standard or next year in the country
"The recent sales appear to be a bit misshapen, not quite in line with the laws of the past." In Wen Li's opinion, the vast majority of orders and actual transactions currently come from the heavy truck country III model, and the inventory of such models has experienced nearly three four. After the months of digestion, they have also warned.
"According to normal emission standards, the National IV standard will probably be enforced next year. Therefore, the current manufacturers should not produce a large number of national III models. After the implementation of the National IV standard, the sales of the National III model will probably be scarce. It will not be so good."
At the manufacturer level, the concern about the New Deal has also been lingering. “Before rumored that the National IV emission standard will be formally implemented on July 1 this year, even if the market has strong demand for the National III model, we are not afraid to open production. As a result, we have not seen the New Deal yet, so we have not dared to Production country IV models." Previously, a person from Sinotruck showed a bit of helplessness when interviewed by reporters.
Recently, news has been uploaded from a small-scale seminar in the heavy truck industry. The national IV emission policy is expected to be implemented nationwide on January 1 next year. “I heard that the state must issue relevant policies and order PetroChina and Sinopec to carry out oil upgrades on January 1st next year. The National IV standard will also be enforced at that time.†Based on this judgment, Dongfeng and other heavy-duty truck companies will set off a new round Adjustment of production scheduling: Reduce the proportion of country III production and increase the proportion of country IV production.
According to He Jie, currently the Dongfeng State IV model has only 8% of its scheduled production capacity, and will rise to 30% in November this year and 70% in December to prepare for this significant January 2014.
"If the policy is to be renewed, the sales pressure of these IV models will eventually be passed on to the distributors. The situation that the manufacturers will press the stocks and the funds are tight will be repeated." Wen Li's concerns still linger on words. For many heavy truck companies and distributors, it is necessary to once again face changes in policies and markets, and re-prepare the National IV model.
Heavy truck sales in the off-season increased by 40% during the off-season